Toby Samuel vs Edison Ambarzumjan Head-to-Head Stats, Results & Performance Comparison

• Second Serve Performance: In the past six months, Ambarzumjan has won 46.37% of points on their second serve, compared to Samuel's 46.94%. Does this slight edge in second serve performance make a significant impact? Yes, because higher second serve win rates often correlate with better match outcomes.
• Return Game Performance: Recently, Ambarzumjan has won 45.29% of points on their opponent's second serve, whereas Samuel has achieved 48.68%. Conversely, Ambarzumjan is slightly better on first serve returns, winning 30.63% of these points compared to Samuel's 29.24%.
• Under Pressure: Ambarzumjan has saved 60.78% of breakpoints, outperforming Samuel, who has saved 49.45% in high-pressure situations. This suggests Ambarzumjan may handle tense moments better.
• Overall Performance: Over the past year, Ambarzumjan has won 52.38% of their matches, while Samuel has a noticeably higher win rate at 65.85%, indicating greater overall performance.
• Preferred Surface: Ambarzumjan excels on Grass with a 67% win rate, while Samuel shows dominance on Clay, winning 75% of matches.
• Player Competition Level: Ambarzumjan and Samuel have both competed in $10K level tournaments, but Samuel has a stronger record, winning 71.88% of matches compared to Ambarzumjan's 52.38%.
• Opponent Quality: Ambarzumjan has faced tougher competition, with opponents averaging a rank of 182.79, while Samuel's opposition averaged a lower rank of 374.88.
• Deciding Sets: If the match heads to a deciding set, Samuel has a better record, winning 40% compared to Ambarzumjan's 27%.
• Break Point Conversion: Ambarzumjan is more effective at converting break points, with a 40% conversion rate, surpassing Samuel's 30.56%.

Editorial Prediction (September 12, 2025, UTC):

The upcoming match promises to be competitive as both players have their unique advantages. Samuel has shown a slight edge in second serve performance and has been more successful in matches overall, with a 65.85% win rate over the past year. This suggests a stronger overall form coming into this match.

Ambarzumjan still holds a competitive advantage in certain key aspects, especially under high-pressure situations, having saved a higher percentage of breakpoints. Although Ambarzumjan has faced tougher opponents, Samuel's higher win rates at this competition level and better performance in deciding sets indicate a mental resilience that may play a critical role.

When considering the trend of facing lower-ranked opponents, Samuel's success and adaptability could surpass Ambarzumjan's improved break point conversion. Taking all data into account, the prediction leans towards Samuel as the likely winner of this match.